Save for a rainy day? Simulating how current investment in escaping decisions may affect future reproductive success of males

In many species, males defending mating territories face a trade-off
between survival and reproductive opportunities when escaping predators.
To avoid missing mating chances, males often take greater risks in the
presence of females. Because female receptivity varies seasonally, males
that adjust their escape decisions according to the reproductive period
may gain a selective advantage, yet the evolution of this behavioral
modulation remains unexplored. We developed an individual-based simulation
model to investigate how different escape strategies evolve. Males adopted
one of four strategies: (i) adjusting flight initiation distance (FID)
based on female presence, (ii) modifying FID according to the reproductive
period, (iii) adjusting FID based on both female presence and reproductive
period, or (iv) maintaining a fixed FID. Our results show that males that
modulate their FID in response to female presence or during the
reproductive period are favoured under conditions where delaying escape
significantly increases the likelihood of retaining females, and when the
correlation between FID and survival is weak. In contrast, when FID
strongly predicts survival and delayed escape has a limited effect on
female retention, males with fixed FID dominated the population. These
results highlight the significance of context-dependent flexibility in
shaping the evolution of escape decisions.