State of Wildfires 2024-25 ConFLAME driving data

This repository contains the driving data used by ConFLAME for the State of Wildfire 2024/25 report. All NetCDF files are on regular 0.5-degree grids, on a monthly timestep, across the three focal regions used in the report. Data is organized into subdirectories for each region: Amazon – Northeast Amazonia Pantanal – Pantanal-Chiquitano LA – Southern California Congo – Congo Basin Each region contains the following files: Burned Area burnt_area.nc: The original 0.25-degree burned area dataset before regridding to 0.5° resolution. Covers 2001–2025. burnt_area_data.csv: Monthly time series extracted from burnt_area.nc. Columns include: mean_burnt_area: Burned area for each month mean_burnt_area_climatology: Monthly climatology (e.g., average for all Januaries) mean_burnt_area_anomaly: Deviation from climatology mean_burnt_ratio: Ratio of monthly value to climatology p95_burnt_area, p95_burnt_area_climatology, p95_burnt_anomaly, p95_burnt_ratio: Same metrics for top 5% of grid cells by burned area burnt_area_datafor_event_months.csv: As above, but limited to key event months highlighted in the report. NRT (Near Real-Time) Data Contained in the nrt directory. This data was used for both driver analysis and near real-time attribution. era5_daily/ Raw ERA5-derived daily data used to generate monthly summaries and counterfactuals. Directory structure:Era5_derived-era5-single-levels-daily-statistics/<variable>/Each variable folder contains: *_years2002-20252.nc – Daily data from 2002–2025 *_years2023-20252.nc – Daily data for 2023–Feb 2025 Variables included: evap/, hursmin/, mrros/, mrsos/, pevap/, pr/, tasdew/, tasmax/, WindGust1/, WindGust2/ era5_monthly/ This is the actual ConFLAME driving data, including the attribution "factual" data. Files include: Climate Variables: precip.nc, tas_max.nc, tas_mean.nc, hurs_mean.nc, hurs_min.nc, wind_max.nc, dry_days.nc, max_consec_dry.nc, LI.nc, cg_strokes.nc Fuel and Vegetation Moisture: TV_DFMC.nc, TV_LFMC.nc, TV_CFUEL_CORRECTED_MAP.nc, month_laih.nc, month_lail.nc, cvh_.nc, cvl_.nc Land Use and Socioeconomic Drivers: cropland_regridded_to_era5.nc, pasture_regridded_to_era5.nc, rangeland_regridded_to_era5.nc, grazing_land_regridded_to_era5.nc,urban_area_regridded_to_era5.nc, total_irrigated_regridded_to_era5.nc,population_density_regridded_to_era5.nc, urban_population_regridded_to_era5.nc, rural_population_regridded_to_era5.nc Burned Area Target burned_area.nc: Regridded 0.5° burned area data, used as the target for model training and evaluation. Counterfactuals CF_mean/: Contains monthly counterfactuals based on the mean difference between HadGEM3 “ALL” and “NAT” ensemble members. See Barbosa et al. (submitted) for details. CF/: Contains ensemble-based counterfactuals used for attribution. Subdirectories: hursmin/, pr/, tas/, tasmax/, WindGust1/Each folder contains NetCDF files named using the format: <variable>_<summary><number>.nc, where: <variable> = input variable <summary> = monthly statistic (e.g., mean, max, count) <number> = ensemble member Variables included: hurs_mean, hurs_min: Monthly mean and minimum of daily minimum relative humidity dry_days: Number of dry days per month max_consec_dry: Maximum number of consecutive dry days precip: Monthly mean precipitation tas_max: Monthly maximum temperature wind_max: Monthly maximum wind speedHere's a full summery: Category File Name or Directory contains '<<no>>' for Counterfactual enemble only. Counterfactual included Description Climate Variables precip_<<no>>.nc Y Monthly total precipitation (mm). tas_min<<no>>.nc Y Monthly maximum daily temperature (°C). tas_mean<<no>>.nc Y Monthly mean daily temperature (°C). hurs_mean<<no>>.nc Y Monthly mean of daily minimum relative humidity (%). hurs_min<<no>>.nc Y Monthly minimum of daily minimum relative humidity (%). wind_max<<no>>.nc Y Monthly maximum daily wind speed (m/s). dry_days<<no>>.nc Y Monthly count of dry days (e.g., days with precipitation < 1 mm). max_consec_dry<<no>>.nc Y Monthly maximum number of consecutive dry days. LI.nc N Monthly mean Lifted Index (°C), a convective instability indicator. cg_strokes.nc N Monthly total cloud-to-ground lightning strokes (count). Fuel and Vegetation Moisture TV_DFMC.nc N Monthly mean dead fuel moisture content (%), modelled. TV_LFMC.nc N Monthly mean live fuel moisture content (%), modelled. TV_CFUEL_CORRECTED_MAP.nc N Corrected total combustible fuel load (kg/m²). month_laih.nc N Monthly mean high canopy Leaf Area Index. month_lail.nc N Monthly mean low canopy Leaf Area Index. cvh_.nc N Monthly coefficient of variation in high vegetation greenness (e.g., NDVI or LAI). cvl_.nc N Monthly coefficient of variation in low vegetation greenness (e.g., NDVI or LAI). Land Use and Socioeconomic cropland_regridded_to_era5.nc N Monthly cropland cover (fraction), regridded to match climate data. pasture_regridded_to_era5.nc N Monthly pasture area (fraction), regridded. rangeland_regridded_to_era5.nc N Monthly rangeland area (fraction), regridded. grazing_land_regridded_to_era5.nc N Monthly total grazing land (pasture + rangeland), regridded. urban_area_regridded_to_era5.nc N Monthly urban area (fraction), regridded. total_irrigated_regridded_to_era5.nc N Monthly total irrigated land (fraction), regridded. population_density_regridded_to_era5.nc N Monthly gridded population density (people/km²), regridded. urban_population_regridded_to_era5.nc N Monthly gridded urban population (people), regridded. rural_population_regridded_to_era5.nc N Monthly gridded rural population (people), regridded. Burned Area Target burned_area.nc Tranining data Monthly burned area at 0.5° resolution, used as the target variable in model training and testing. Counterfactuals (Mean) CF_mean/ Folder containing mean climate counterfactuals (ALL - NAT) by variable. See Barbosa et al. (submitted). Counterfactuals (Ensemble) CF/ Folder containing counterfactual ensembles used for formal attribution. CF/hursmin/ Counterfactuals for monthly minimum relative humidity. CF/pr/ Counterfactuals for precipitation. CF/tas/ Counterfactuals for monthly mean temperature. CF/tasmax/ Counterfactuals for maximum temperature. CF/WindGust1/ Counterfactuals for maximum wind speed. ISIMIP3a Data (Attribution) Directory structure: <<experiment>>/<<reanalysis_source>>/period_yyyy_yyyy/ experiment: obsclim: Observed climate (factual) counterclim: Detrended (counterfactual) reanalysis_source: Currently only GSWP3-W5E5 Time periods used in the report: Factual: obsclim/GSWP3-W5E5/period_2002_2019/ Counterfactual: counterclim/GSWP3-W5E5/period_2002_2019/ Early Industrial: counterclim/GSWP3-W5E5/period_1901_1920/ ISIMIP3b Data (Future Projections) Directory structure: <<experiment>>/<<GCM>>/period_yyyy_yyyy/ experiment: historical, ssp126, ssp370, ssp585 GCM: Refers to the General Circulation Model used ISIMIP Variable Table NetCDF file Variable Used? Source Notes consec_dry_mean.nc Max. consecutive dry days Yes ISIMIP3a/3b Based on precipitation crop_jules-es.nc Cropland Yes ISIMIP3a/3b Interpolated monthly from annual values filled_debiased_nonetree_cover_jules-es.nc Non-tree vegetated cover Yes JULES-ES Bias-corrected using MODIS VCF filled_debiased_tree_cover_jules-es.nc Tree cover Yes JULES-ES Bias-corrected using MODIS VCF filled_debiased_vegCover_jules-es.nc Total vegetation cover Yes JULES-ES Bias-corrected lightning.nc Lightning climatology Yes ISIMIP3a Climatology only pasture_jules-es.nc Pasture Yes ISIMIP3a/3b Monthly interpolated pr_mean.nc Monthly precipitation Yes ISIMIP3a/3b tas_max.nc Monthly maximum temperature Yes ISIMIP3a/3b Max of daily max temps tas_mean.nc Mean temperature Yes ISIMIP3a/3b Daily mean urban_jules-es.nc Urban area fraction Yes JULES-ES vpd_max.nc Max monthly vapour pressure deficit Yes ISIMIP3a/3b vpd_mean.nc Mean monthly VPD Yes ISIMIP3a/3b ... ... No ... Other vegetation and VCF files not used directly Variables with _change in the filename represent the difference from the previous year to the current year. ISIMIP data is detailed in Frieler et al. (2024) and can be accessed at https://data.ISIMIP.org.VCF data used for bias correction is from MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields Collection 6.0 (DiMiceli et al., 2015).JULES-ES simulations used ISIMIP climate drivers as described in Mathison et al. (2023).