Replication Data for: Observable Bounds of Rationality and Credibility in International Relations

In crisis bargaining scenarios, resolved states send costly signals to demonstrate a willingness to fight. Yet public signals of resolve are issued by specific leaders, who operate with cognitive limitations in challenging decision environments. Drawing upon theories of behavioral economics, we develop a series of observable indicators plausibly connected to leader ability and difficulty of decision environment that we expect shape perceived signaler credibility. Effects, we argue, are due to perceived variation in the signaler’s uncertainty over the future costs at stake. We find that almost all indicators shape threat credibility, and find suggestive support for the proposed mechanism. By bridging behavioral economics and foundational scholarship on costly signaling in IR in novel ways, this registered report shows how individual and environmental decision restrictions set the bounds of observable leader rationality, and in turn shape credibility in IR.