Streamflow Projections in Rio Grande at San Marcial Gauges Derived from CMIP5 Global Climate Models Coupled to VIC Surface Hydrology Model from 1950 - 2099

Data were used for a total of 97 climate projection scenarios in this study. These scenarios show monthly and annual streamflow in the Rio Grande main channel at the pair of USGS gauges at San Marcial, representing the inflows to Elephant Butte reservoir from 2022 to 2099. Townsend and Gutzler (2020) developed an adjustment procedure to convert natural flows projected by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation at the Elephant Butte dam to realistic flow values at San Marcial (at the upstream end of Elephant Butte Reservoir) to account for upstream water management. The scenarios cover a range of dry (average annual projected flow less than the historical value) to wet (average annual projected flow higher than the historical value) conditions. However, the median of most projections is 20%-60% lower than the historical median flow (1994-2013), indicating a higher risk of river flow shortage. Four projections were selected to represent Rio Grande flow scenarios, namely "access1-0_rcp85", "hadgem2-es_rcp85", "fio-esm_rcp45", and "cnrm-cm5_rcp85". (Townsend and Gutzler 2020; Samimi et al., 2022). The data are stored as a csv file and available for free public use.