美国航天飞机挑战者号O型环数据集

There are two databases: (both use the same set of 5 attributes): 1. Primary o-ring erosion and/or blowby 2. Primary o-ring erosion only The two databases are identical except for the 2nd attribute of the 21st instance (confirmed by David Draper on 8/5/93). Edited from (Draper, 1993): The motivation for collecting this database was the explosion of the USA Space Shuttle Challenger on 28 January, 1986. An investigation ensued into the reliability of the shuttle's propulsion system. The explosion was eventually traced to the failure of one of the three field joints on one of the two solid booster rockets. Each of these six field joints includes two O-rings, designated as primary and secondary, which fail when phenomena called erosion and blowby both occur. The night before the launch a decision had to be made regarding launch safety. The discussion among engineers and managers leading to this decision included concern that the probability of failure of the O-rings depended on the temperature t at launch, which was forecase to be 31 degrees F. There are strong engineering reasons based on the composition of O-rings to support the judgment that failure probability may rise monotonically as temperature drops. One other variable, the pressure s at which safety testing for field join leaks was performed, was available, but its relevance to the failure process was unclear. Draper's paper includes a menacing figure graphing the number of field joints experiencing stress vs. liftoff temperature for the 23 shuttle flights previous to the Challenger disaster. No previous liftoff temperature was under 53 degrees F. Although tremendous extrapolation must be done from the given data to assess risk at 31 degrees F, it is obvious even to the layman "to foresee the unacceptably high risk created by launching at 31 degrees F." For more information, see Draper (1993) or the other previous analyses. The task is to predict the number of O-rings that will experience thermal distress for a given flight when the launch temperature is below freezing. Attribute Information: 1. Number of O-rings at risk on a given flight 2. Number experiencing thermal distress 3. Launch temperature (degrees F) 4. Leak-check pressure (psi) 5. Temporal order of flight Relevant Papers: Draper,D. (1993). Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty. In Proceedings of the Fourth International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (pp. 497--509). Ft. Lauderdale, FL: Unpublished. [Web link] Dalal,S.R., Fowlkes,E.B., & Hoadley,B. (1989). Risk analysis of the space shuttle: pre-Challenger prediction of failure. Journal of the American Statisticians Association, 84, 945--957. [Web link] Lavine,M. (1991). Problems in extrapolation illustrated with space shuttle O-ring data. Journal of the American Statisticians Association, 86, 919--922. Martz H.F., & Zimmer, W.J. (1992). The risk of catastrophic failure of the solid rocket boosters on the space shuttle. American Statistics, 46, 42--47. [Web link] Papers That Cite This Data Set1: Stephen D. Bay. Multivariate Discretization for Set Mining. Knowl. Inf. Syst, 3. 2001. [View Context]. Pedro Domingos. Linear-Time Rule Induction. KDD. 1996. [View Context]. Mohammed Waleed Kadous and Claude Sammut. The University of New South Wales School of Computer Science and Engineering Temporal Classification: Extending the Classification Paradigm to Multivariate Time Series. [View Context]. Citation Request: Please refer to the Machine Learning Repository's citation policy Original Owner: David Draper (draper '@' math.ucla.edu) University of California, Los Angeles Donor: David Draper (draper '@' math.ucla.edu)

本数据集包含两个数据库（二者共享同一套5个属性）：1. 主O形密封圈（O-ring）腐蚀及/或窜气（blowby）；2. 仅主O形密封圈腐蚀。两个数据库仅在第21条样本的第2个属性上存在差异（该差异已于1993年8月5日由David Draper确认）。

数据改编自Draper（1993）的研究：
该数据集的采集背景为1986年1月28日美国"挑战者"号航天飞机爆炸事故，后续针对航天飞机推进系统的可靠性展开了专项调查。最终调查结果显示，事故原因是两枚固体助推火箭中某一枚的3个现场接头之一发生失效。每个现场接头包含两枚O形密封圈，分别标记为初级（primary）和次级（secondary），当腐蚀与窜气两种现象同时发生时，密封圈会失效。

发射前一晚，团队需就是否发射做出决策，参与决策讨论的工程师与管理人员均担忧O形密封圈的失效概率与发射温度相关——当时预报的发射温度为31华氏度。基于O形密封圈的材料特性，已有充分的工程依据支持"失效概率随温度降低单调递增"这一判断。另有一项变量为现场接头泄漏安全测试时的压力s，但其与失效过程的关联性尚不明确。

Draper的论文中包含一张极具警示意义的图表，绘制了"挑战者"事故前23次航天飞行的现场接头受应力数量与发射温度的关系。此前所有航天飞行的发射温度均不低于53华氏度。尽管需基于现有数据进行大幅外推才能评估31华氏度下的风险，但即便外行人也能清晰预见"在31华氏度下发射会带来难以接受的高风险"。

如需了解更多细节，可参阅Draper（1993）的研究或其他早期相关分析。

本数据集的任务为：当发射温度低于冰点时，预测某次航天飞行中出现热应力失效的O形密封圈数量。

### 属性信息：
1. 本次飞行中存在失效风险的O形密封圈总数
2. 出现热应力失效的O形密封圈数量
3. 发射温度（华氏度）
4. 泄漏测试压力（磅/平方英寸，psi）
5. 飞行任务的时间顺序

### 相关文献：
1. Draper, D. (1993). 模型不确定性的评估与传播. 载于第四届人工智能与统计学国际研讨会论文集（第497--509页）. 劳德代尔堡，佛罗里达州（FL）：未正式出版. [网络链接]
2. Dalal, S.R., Fowlkes, E.B. & Hoadley, B. (1989). 航天飞机风险分析："挑战者"事故前的失效预测. 《美国统计学会期刊》，第84卷，第945--957页. [网络链接]
3. Lavine, M. (1991). 以航天飞机O形密封圈数据为例的外推问题. 《美国统计学会期刊》，第86卷，第919--922页.
4. Martz, H.F. & Zimmer, W.J. (1992). 航天飞机固体助推火箭灾难性失效风险. 《美国统计》，第46卷，第42--47页. [网络链接]

### 引用本数据集的文献：
1. Stephen D. Bay. 面向集合挖掘的多变量离散化方法. 《知识与信息系统》（Knowl. Inf. Syst），第3卷，2001年. [查看上下文]
2. Pedro Domingos. 线性时间规则归纳. 载于知识发现与数据挖掘国际会议（KDD），1996年. [查看上下文]
3. Mohammed Waleed Kadous 与 Claude Sammut. 新南威尔士大学计算机科学与工程学院：时序分类：将分类范式扩展至多变量时间序列. [查看上下文]

### 引用要求：
请遵循机器学习存储库（Machine Learning Repository）的引用规范。

### 原始数据所有者：
David Draper（邮箱：draper '@' math.ucla.edu），加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校
### 数据捐赠者：
David Draper（邮箱：draper '@' math.ucla.edu）

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集源于1986年美国挑战者号航天飞机爆炸事故的调查，用于分析O型环在低温下的失效风险。数据集包含5个属性：O型环数量、热应力数量、发射温度、泄漏检查压力和飞行顺序，旨在预测在冻结温度下发射时经历热应力的O型环数量。