Macroeconomic & Welfare Effects of Energy Policies in the GCC: MEGIR-SA model

Executive Summary:MEGIR – Model with Energy, Growth and Intergenerational Redistribution – investigates the long-run implications for growth and equity across generations of different energy policies. It is the first general equilibrium model with overlapping generations to be developed and applied for energy policy analysis in the Arabian Peninsula. The version presented here is parameterized on Saudi data. It is a new and thoroughly revised version of the model developed for western countries by Gonand and Jouvet (2015). It is designed specifically for the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, particularly insofar as it incorporates an oil-exporting sector and public finances benefiting massively and directly from oil exports. Its range of applications goes from modeling the impact on growth and inter-generational equity of higher energy efficiency, to the assessment of the effects of different potential fuel mixes and/or end-use energy prices on long-term growth and welfare distribution by age cohort. The MEGIR-SA model is also well suited to being adapted to include a sovereign wealth fund or for other oil exporting countries. The main advantage of MEGIR-SA is its ability to analyze precisely and simultaneously the effect of energy policies on potential growth and on intergenerational equity. This has some unavoidable cost in terms of modeling other aspects of the economy – e.g., the modeling of the supply side is more simplified than in models incorporating input-output matrix. This paper provides the detailed technical description of the model that is used in other, companion, policy-oriented, KAPSARC papers. It also gives the characteristics of the baseline, no-reform scenario for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) as assessed by MEGIR-SAAbout the Project Increasing energy productivity holds some of the greatest possibilities for enhancing the welfare countries get out of their energy systems. It also recasts energy efficiency in terms of boosting competitiveness and wealth, more powerfully conveying its profound benefits to society. KAPSARC and UNESCWA have initiated this project to explore the energy productivity potential of the Arab region, starting with the six GCC countries and later extending to other countries. Aimed at policymakers, this project highlights the social gains from energy productivity investments, where countries are currently at, and pathways to achieving improved performance in this area.

摘要：MEGIR（能源、增长与代际再分配模型）——一项针对不同能源政策对代际增长与公平的长远影响进行的探究。该模型系首个应用于阿拉伯半岛能源政策分析的包含代际重叠的总体均衡模型。本版模型以沙特阿拉伯数据为基础进行参数化，是对Gonand与Jouvet（2015年）为西方国家开发的模型进行全新修订后的版本。该模型专门针对海湾合作委员会（GCC）国家的经济进行设计，特别是考虑到它融入了石油出口部门以及从石油出口中直接且大量获益的公共财政。其应用范围涵盖从模拟更高能源效率对增长与代际公平的影响，到评估不同潜在的燃料组合及/或终端能源价格对长期增长与按年龄群体分配的福利的影响。MEGIR-SA模型亦适宜于调整以包含主权财富基金或适用于其他石油出口国。MEGIR-SA的主要优势在于其精确且同时分析能源政策对潜在增长与代际公平影响的能力。然而，在模型中对其他经济方面的建模——例如，相较于包含投入产出矩阵的模型，供给方面的建模较为简化——不可避免地带来了一定的成本。本文详细描述了模型的技术细节，该模型被用于其他政策导向的、同伴的KAPSARC论文中。同时，本文还提供了由MEGIR-SA评估的沙特阿拉伯王国（KSA）基准、无改革情景的特点。
关于项目：提高能源生产率是增强各国从其能源系统中获得的福利的巨大潜力之一。它还从提升竞争力和财富的角度重新定义了能源效率，更加强有力地传达了其对社会的深远益处。KAPSARC与联合国经济社会委员会西部和阿拉伯地区办事处（UNESCWA）共同启动了本项目，旨在探索阿拉伯地区的能源生产率潜力，初始阶段以六个GCC国家为起点，并计划后来扩展至其他国家。该项目面向政策制定者，强调了能源生产率投资带来的社会收益，指出了各国目前所处位置，并提出了在该领域实现性能提升的路径。