MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING OF HORTICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT USING ARIMA MODELS: EVIDENCE FROM THE SAMARKAND REGION, UZBEKISTAN

This study applies the Box–Jenkins ARIMA approach to forecast the medium-term development of the horticultural sector in the Samarkand region, Uzbekistan. Annual data for 2010–2025 were obtained from the Samarkand Regional Statistics Department and analyzed using Stata 18. Forecasting models were developed for four key indicators: fruit production, grape production, horticultural investment, and orchard area. Stationarity was confirmed using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test, while optimal model specifications were selected based on the Akaike (AIC) and Bayesian (BIC) information criteria. The forecasts indicate sustained sectoral growth through 2032, with fruit production, grape production, horticultural investment, and orchard area projected to increase by 22.2%, 22.5%, 35.0%, and 13.8%, respectively, compared with 2025. The findings highlight the role of investment in supporting production growth and provide an empirical basis for regional agricultural planning and investment policy.