Data from: Modelling the potential efficacy of treatments for white-nose syndrome in bats

1. The fungal disease white-nose syndrome (WNS) has caused mass mortality
in some species of North American bats during hibernation. 2. We use
population viability models to test if a hypothetical WNS treatment or
management action could facilitate the recovery of WNS-affected little
brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus) populations. We modelled scenarios
altering three parameters: (1) WNS severity (population growth rate of
WNS-affected populations; λWNS); (2) proportion of population treated; and
(3) treatment improvement in winter survival (TIWS). 3. Our models predict
that a treatment or management action that targets an entire population
with a TIWS of 40% (the average TIWS in bat trials to date) will cause a
population to stabilize or increase if WNS causes an annual decline of
less than 70% (i.e. λWNS>=0.30). However, for severe WNS
(λWNS=0.10), the TIWS must be at least 54% to cause the population to
stabilize or increase. Where only a proportion of a WNS-affected
population is treated, population stability is much harder to achieve
unless the impact of WNS attenuates over time. 4. Our models suggest that
a treatment or management action only facilitates the recovery of
WNS-affected populations if WNS is mild, a large proportion of bats can be
treated, TIWS is high, and/or WNS severity attenuates over time. 5.
Synthesis and applications. We modelled the predicted abundance trajectory
of white-nose syndrome (WNS)-affected little brown myotis (Myotis
lucifugus) populations in response to hypothetical treatment or management
actions. Our two types of models incorporate the complete range of
possible scenarios varying three parameters: (1) population growth rate of
the WNS-affected population, (2) the improvement in winter survival
associated with the treatment or management action, and (3) the proportion
of the population treated. We suggest that our models, which can be
explored using online Shiny applications, should be used in the planning
phase of treatment or management action programs for WNS.