Settlement trajectories of nearly 25,000 forced migrants in New Zealand: longitudinal insights from administrative data

Aotearoa New Zealand provides differential settlement support to forced migrants, primarily determined by how they receive protection status – as asylum seekers, refugees, or through other visa pathways. Despite these differences, there is limited quantitative evidence of their settlement outcomes related to work, social welfare, education and housing. In response, this study presents administrative data of adults from refugee backgrounds composed of four distinct subgroups (quota refugee, convention refugee, family reunification, and asylum seeker) to explore their access to these main services post-settlement and ascertain longitudinal income trajectories. Using the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI), we identified 24,894 working-age adults from refugee backgrounds who first received refugee recognition, an asylum-seeker visa or a family reunification visa between 1997 and 2020. We describe these cohorts’ demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and access to services by drawing from a range of government and census datasets. We then present a mixed model regression to illustrate the association of longitudinal income with years from arrival and other settlement indicators: controlling for age, gender, and refugee subgroups. Findings show outcome disparities between refugee groups and highlight the policy implications for supporting positive settlement outcomes, particularly emphasising the first five years of settlement.