Influences of fire–vegetation feedbacks and post-fire recovery rates on forest landscape vulnerability to altered fire regimes

1. In the context of on-going climatic warming, forest landscapes face increasing risk of conversion to non-forest vegetation through alteration of their fire regimes and their post-fire recovery dynamics. However, this pressure could be amplified or dampened, depending on how fire-driven changes to vegetation feed back to alter the extent or behavior of subsequent fires.
2. Here we develop a mathematical model to formalize understanding of how fire–vegetation feedbacks and the time to forest recovery following high-severity (i.e., stand-replacing) fire affect the extent and stability of forest cover across landscapes facing altered fire regimes. We evaluate responses to increasing burn rates while varying the direction (negative vs. positive) of fire–vegetation feedbacks under a continuum of values for feedback strength and post-fire recovery time to determine how interactions among these variables produce thresholds and tipping points in landscape responses to changing fire regimes.
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