Data from: Predicted range expansion of the larger grain borer, <i>Prostephanus truncatus </i>(Coleoptera: Bostrichidae), under projected climate change scenarios

The larger grain borer (<i>Prostephanus truncatus</i> [Horn] [Coleoptera: Bostrichidae]) is a wood-boring insect native to Central America but has adapted to stored maize and cassava. It was accidentally introduced to Tanzania and became a pest across central Africa. Unlike many grain pests, <i>P. truncatus </i>populations can establish and move within forested habitats. Consequently, novel infestations can occur without human influence. The objectives of our study were to (1) develop an updated current suitability projection for <i>P. truncatus</i> (2) assess its potential future distribution under different climate change scenarios, and (3) identify climate variables that best inform the model. We used WALLACE and MaxEnt to predict potential global distribution by incorporating bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Future models were projected to 2050 and 2070 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 (low warming) and 8.5 (high warming). Distribution was most limited by high precipitation and cold temperatures. Globally, highly suitable areas (&gt;75%) primarily occurred along coastal and equatorial regions with novel areas in northern South America, India, southeastern Asia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, totaling 7% under current conditions. Highly suitable areas at RCP 2.6 and 8.5 are estimated to increase to 12 and 15%, respectively, by 2050 and increase to 19% in 2070 under RCP 8.5. Centroids of highly suitable areas show the distribution centers move more inshore and away from the equator. Notably, the result is a range expansion, not shift. These results can be used to decrease biosecurity risks through more spatially explicit and timely surveillance programs for targeting the exclusion of this pest.大谷蠹（Prostephanus truncatus [Horn] [Coleoptera: Bostrichidae]）是一种原产于中美洲的蛀木昆虫，现已适应仓储玉米与木薯寄主。该物种意外传入坦桑尼亚后，已在非洲中部地区扩散为重要农业害虫。与多数谷物害虫不同，大谷蠹种群可在森林生境中完成定殖并扩散，因此即便无人类活动干预，也可能出现新的虫害侵染事件。 本研究的核心目标包括三项：（1）构建大谷蠹当前适生分布的最新预测模型；（2）评估不同气候变化情景下其未来潜在分布范围；（3）筛选对模型贡献度最高的气候变量。 本研究结合生物气候变量与物种发生记录，利用WALLACE平台与最大熵模型（MaxEnt）预测该害虫的全球潜在分布。未来分布预测分别基于典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP）2.6（低升温情景）与8.5（高升温情景），预测时间节点设定为2050年与2070年。 分析结果显示，高降水量与低温是限制该害虫分布的主要因子。全球范围内，适生指数大于75%的极高适生区主要分布于沿海与赤道区域；当前情景下，南美洲北部、印度、东南亚、印度尼西亚及菲律宾为新增适生区，总面积占比约7%。在RCP2.6与RCP8.5情景下，2050年极高适生区占比预计分别升至12%与15%；至2070年RCP8.5情景下，该占比将进一步增至19%。极高适生区的质心分析表明，其分布中心将向近岸区域迁移并偏离赤道。值得注意的是，本研究结果显示该害虫的适生范围呈扩张态势，而非分布区偏移。 本研究结果可为制定空间分辨率更高、时效性更强的针对性监测计划提供科学依据，从而有效防控该害虫的传入定植，降低生物安全风险。