Data from: Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective tool to explore
the potential distribution of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine
organisms; however, SDMs have been seldom used to model ichthyoplankton
distributions and thus our understanding of how larval stages of fishes
will respond to climate change is still limited. Here, we developed SDMs
to explore potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of
ichthyoplankton. Location: Yangtze Estuary, China Methods: Using long-term
ichthyoplankton survey data and a large set of marine predictor variables,
we developed ensemble SDMs for five abundant ichthyoplankton species in
the Yangtze Estuary (Coilia mystus, Hypoatherina valenciennei,
Larimichthys polyactis, Salanx ariakensis, and Chelidonichthys spinosus).
Then, we projected their habitat suitability under present and future
climate conditions. Results: The ensemble SDMs had good predictive
performance and were successful in estimating the known distributions of
the five species. Model projections highlighted two contrasting patterns
of response to future climates: while C. mystus will likely expand its
range, the ranges of the other four species will likely contract and shift
northward. Main conclusions: According to our SDM projections, the five
ichthyoplankton species that we tested in the Yangtze Estuary are likely
to respond differently to future climate changes. These projected
different responses seemingly reflect the differential functional
attributes and life history strategies of these species. To the extent
that climate change emerges as a critical driver of the future
distribution of these species, our findings provide an important roadmap
for designing future conservation strategies for ichthyoplankton in this
region.