Ensemble modelling of particle tracker to provide a probabilistic approach to COTS dispersal

Crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) outbreaks spread on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) through dispersal of larvae on ocean currents. Understanding, measuring and predicting how larvae are dispersed is vital to both modelling COTS outbreaks on the GBR, and controlling those outbreaks effectively. Despite its central importance, modelling COTS larva dispersal remains challenging due to the scarcity of knowledge on their biology and behaviour and the complex water circulation. This project applied an ensemble model approach, incorporating a range of validated hydrodynamic and bio-physical assumptions, to create a probabilistic approach to COTS dispersal, permitting the evaluation and minimisation of uncertainties inherent to the complex system.