on_line_files_Deng_SICM_model.zip

All mfiles starting with 'Run_*' can be run on Matlab without any pre-loaded variables or data. <br> The three files in the root directory consist of the only input data to all program mfiles. Of which, SICM.m is the mathematical model, Input_Matched_InitialsAndParameters.mat contains initial conditions and parameter values for each day from day 50 to day 590, 30 best-fitted values for each day, ranked from the best to worst fit. The third csv file is the US cases and deaths data from CDC. <br> The order in which to generate the output data files is to run all Run_* mfiles in folders (1) Build_Real_Data (2) Build_Solution_Book (3) Build_Forecast_Book (4) Plot_Output <br> When you reach the Plot_Output folder, you have build all data files for plotting and annimation. <br> Run "Run_Plot_Output" will generate the first batch of output plots. <br> Note: It requires zero knowledge to verify the result. All one needs is the model SICM.m and the initial values and parameters provided to explore the dynamics of the model, and to analyze the fit of the model to the data, with the parameter and initial values provided from the data file `Input_Matched_InitialsAndParameters.mat'. All the remaining folders contain Matlab programs to present the fit and the forecast presented in the manuscript `Forecast U.S. Covid-19 Numbers by Open SIR Model with Testing'. <br>