Replication Data for: Rebel Fragmentation and the Recruitment of Child Soldiers

The recruitment and use of children in armed conflict remains a prevalent feature of modern civil war. But which conflict actors are more likely to recruit children? We argue that the process by which rebel groups form shapes their recruitment strategies. Specifically, we contend that rebels that form as splinter factions from the ranks of pre-existing rebel organizations are more likely to recruit child soldiers than other rebel groups. Splinter groups face unique constraints as they materialize in the midst of an active conflict environment, necessitating that they mobilize a sufficient force to contend with existing competitors. As a result, rebel factions are more likely to pursue recruitment strategies that are low cost vis-à-vis alternatives, focusing on their immediate survival. Under such conditions, children become especially attractive recruits. Leveraging the Foundations of Rebel Group Emergence Dataset, our cross-national investigation of 237 rebel groups active between 1989 and 2011 provides robust support for our hypothesis that splinter factions are strongly associated with the recruitment of children.

武装冲突中招募和使用儿童仍是现代内战的普遍现象。但究竟哪些冲突行为体更倾向于招募儿童兵？我们提出，反叛组织的形成过程会塑造其招募策略。具体而言，我们认为，从既有反叛组织阵营中分裂而出的反叛派别，相较其他反叛团体，更有可能招募儿童兵。分裂派别在活跃的冲突环境中诞生之际，会面临独特的约束条件，这迫使他们必须动员足够兵力以对抗现存的竞争势力。为此，反叛派别更倾向于采用相较于其他方案成本更低的招募策略，优先保障自身的即时生存。在此类情境下，儿童便成为极具吸引力的招募对象。本研究依托《反叛组织起源数据集》（Foundations of Rebel Group Emergence Dataset），对1989年至2011年间活跃的237个反叛团体开展跨国分析，结果为“分裂派别与儿童兵招募存在强相关性”这一假说提供了坚实的实证支撑。