Moderated-Mediation of VUCA on the Relationship Between Transformational Leadership, Digital-Technology-Human Trinity, and Global Competitiveness

Abstract—Despite over $1.3 trillion invested annually in digital transformation globally, nearly 70% of such initiatives fail to achieve their intended objectives. This phenomenon is increasingly attributed to organizations' inability to navigate VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) conditions. This study proposes and empirically tests a moderated-mediation model examining how transformational leadership (TL) influences global competitiveness through the serial mediation of digital technology optimization (DTO) and modern human capital development (HRD 4.0), with cognitive organizational agility (COA) as the central mechanism and VUCA intensity as a contextual moderator. Using survey data from 250 organizations across five Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam), structural equation modeling (SEM) and PROCESS moderated-mediation analysis (Model 21) were employed. Results indicate that TL significantly enhances global competitiveness through two serial mediation pathways: TL → DTO→ COA → GCI (β = 0.096, p < 0.001) and TL → HRD → COA → GCI (β = 0.101, p < 0.001), with total indirect effects accounting for 98.3% of the total effect. VUCA significantly moderates the TL → COA relationship (β = 0.089, p = 0.010), and the conditional indirect effect strengthens from β = 0.087 (low VUCA) to β = 0.189 (high VUCA). The index of moderated mediation (0.042, 95% CI [0.007, 0.078]) confirms that VUCA amplifies the indirect effect. These findings provide a cognitive-digital framework for transformational leadership in VUCA environments, with significant implications for organizational strategy, human resource development, and national competitiveness policy.* *Keywords—Transformational leadership, VUCA (volatility-uncertainty-complexity-ambiguity), digital technology optimization, human capital development (HRD 4.0), global competitiveness, moderated mediation.