Climate change drives spatial mismatch and threatens the biotic interactions of the Brazil nut tree

Aim: Climate change and deforestation will redistribute the biodiversity in the next century. Species-specific differences in the response to such stressors will lead to distribution decoupling of interacting species, yet consequences for ecosystem services are poorly known. Here, we assess the potential effects of future niche mismatch on a key ecosystem service mediated by seed dispersal and pollination interactions in the Amazon: the sustainable exploitation of Brazil nuts.

Location: The Amazon. Major taxa studied: Woody plant, medium-sized mammals, and insects.

Time period: Present day, end of the 21st Century.

Methods: Combining ecological niche models to simulations of tree cover loss and dispersal constraints, we compare the forecasted distribution of the plant to that of its interacting fauna of pollinators and seed dispersers.

Results: Our projections indicate that climate change itself could have no or slightly negative effects on the distribution of the Brazil nut...