The prediction of tuberculosis incidence in Shaanxi province from 2020 to 2025: Based on the SARIMA model

Objective To forecast the incidence rates of tuberculosis in Shaanxi province from 2020 to 2025, in order to provide updated data for the completion of tuberculosis elimination objectives across different levels of healthcare organizations.Methods The trends in the incidence of tuberculosis in Shaanxi from 2004 to 2022 were analyzed using joinpoint regression, while a seasonal differential recursive autoregressive moving average model was used to predict actual tuberculosis incidence from 2020 to 2025.Results The incidence of tuberculosis in Shaanxi has decreased from 90.896/100,000 in 2004 to 35.364/100,000 in 2022, indicating a general downward trend with a mean annual change of -7.72% (P<0.001). During the period from 2015 to 2019, the rate of decline slowed with an annual percent change of -0.69% (P=0.814). The largest decline occurred during the period from 2020 to 2022, with an annual percent change of -13.26% (P=0.01). Through prediction, it was found that the incidence rates during the three years from 2020 to 2022 were higher than those reported, with an estimated incidence rate of 51.342/100,000 in 2022. By 2025, it is predicted that the incidence rate of tuberculosis in Shaanxi will be 48.354/100,000.Conclusion It is expected that Shaanxi will not achieve the target set by the World Health Organization by 2025, but it will meet the requirements of the "Healthy China 2030" planning document and approach the objectives of the "Shaanxi Anti-Tuberculosis Action Plan (2020-2022)".