Weather before glacial lake outburst floods: data and code

# Weather before glacial lake outburst floods: data and code This package contains the data and code of a global analysis of the weather before glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). For 924 date-precise outbursts at 278 lakes (1979–2026), the weather in the days to weeks before each outburst is compared with the weather of the same lake, the same season and the neighbouring years. The analysis covers four lake types (water pockets, supraglacial lakes, moraine-dammed lakes and ice-dammed lakes), uses two meteorological data sets (ERA5-Land and NOAA CPC), and includes a pre-specified out-of-sample test on 325 held-out outbursts from 1950–1978. ## Contents ``` glof_pre_outburst_weather/ ├── README.md this file ├── data/ input series, event tables, result tables and figures │ ├── README.md description of every folder and table │ ├── data/ per-lake daily meteorological series and lake tables │ └── results/ event tables, result tables, figures, out-of-sample protocol └── code/ analysis, figure and download scripts ├── README.md description of every script and how to run them ├── requirements.txt ├── scripts/ analysis and figure scripts (Python) └── download/ stand-alone download tools for ERA5-Land (CDS) and NOAA CPC ``` The folder names inside `data/` (`data/` and `results/`) are the paths the scripts expect. To rerun the analysis, place `code/scripts/`, `data/data/` and `data/results/` side by side in one working directory: ``` work/ ├── scripts/ (from code/scripts) ├── data/ (from data/data) └── results/ (from data/results) ``` and run the scripts from `work/` as described in `code/README.md`. All result tables in `data/results/` can be regenerated in this layout; the per-lake input series are included, so no download is needed except for the two GLOF databases (see below). ## Source data sets The package contains series and tables derived from the following data sets. They are subject to the licences of their providers. | Data set | Use | Access | |---|---|---| | Global glacial lake outburst flood database, v4.2 | events outside High Mountain Asia | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7330344 | | High Mountain Asia GLOF database (HMAGLOFDB), v1.3.0 | events in High Mountain Asia | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7271187 | | ERA5-Land post-processed daily statistics | daily mean 2 m temperature and snow water equivalent, 1979–2025 | https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e9c9c792 | | ERA5-Land hourly data | daily precipitation and snowmelt (00 UTC accumulations), 1979–2026 | https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac | | ERA5-Land hourly time series | point series for 2026 and for the held-out lakes (1950–1990) | https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-land-timeseries | | NOAA CPC Global Unified temperature and gauge precipitation | independent check | https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globaltemp.html and https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globalprecip.html (files from https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets) | | Randolph Glacier Inventory regions | definition of High Mountain Asia (RGI regions 13–15) | https://www.glims.org/RGI/ | | Natural Earth | coastlines and borders in the maps | https://www.naturalearthdata.com | The two GLOF databases are not redistributed here. `code/README.md` explains where to place them if the event tables are to be rebuilt from scratch; the event tables used in the analysis are included in `data/results/`. ## Language Code, tables and documentation are in English. The out-of-sample protocol was originally written in Chinese; English translations are provided in `data/results/sea/oos/`. ## Contact Jun Guo, [e-mail]