Skill of Medium Range Forecast Group

"This paper depicts in a graphical manner the skill of the Medium Range (3-10 day) Forecast Group (MRFG) man and machine (numerical model guidance) forecasts. It will be updated each February in order to present the latest calendar year versus long term mean score in each forecast category. Only scores with at least a 5 year period of record will be presented. Hence, this paper contains only the standardized and unstandardized mean sea level - pressure correlation, the Gilman precipitation skill, the Hughes precipitation skill and the minimum/maximum absolute error temperature scores for days 3 , 4, and 5. Subsequent updates to this note also will include the experimental precipitation scores for days 3, 4, and 5, the mean temperature and precipitation skill scores for the 6 to 10 day forecast,and the mean 500mb correlation score for the 6 to 10 day forecast"--Purpose. Francis D. Hughes. "Revised February 1982." "This is an unreviewed manuscript, primarily intended for informal exchange of information among NMC staff members." System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. 1982 NWS (National Weather Service) NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Library Public Domain 2285