Foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak's significance on the South African beef industry

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease endemic to South Africa (SA). As accepted by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), South African had an FMD-free zone where vaccination was not practised, until an outbreak in January 2019, leading to the shutdown of SA’s beef exports. While bilateral agreements were made between certain of SA’s trading partners, the outbreak of FMD was generally regarded by industry role players as having a considerable impact on the beef industry of South Africa; however, the extent of this impact was not quantified. This study aims to quantify the impact that an FMD outbreak has on the average beef carcass price in SA.
By making use of SA’s volume of beef exported as a proxy to indicate FMD (given that an FMD disease outbreak prevents the export of beef unless bilateral agreements are made between specific trading partners), ordinary least squares (OLS) regression indicated that exports do have a statistically significant impact on the average beef carcass price in SA. However, diagnostic testing on the results showed that the model contained defects and, therefore, was unsuitable for hypothesis testing.

On this basis, while the study supported the need to quantify the impact of FMD outbreaks on the South African beef industry, it is recommended that further research is needed, especially noting the structural shift created by the outbreak, as the country’s FMD-free-zone status is yet to be reinstated at the time of writing this study.

口蹄疫（Foot and mouth disease，简称FMD）是一种高度传染性的病毒性疾病，广泛流行于南非（SA）。根据世界动物卫生组织（World Organisation for Animal Health，简称OIE）的认可，南非曾设立无口蹄疫区域，该区域内未进行疫苗接种，直至2019年1月爆发疫情，导致南非牛肉出口暂停。尽管南非与部分贸易伙伴签订了双边协议，但口蹄疫的爆发普遍被行业参与者视为对南非牛肉产业产生了相当大的影响；然而，这种影响的程度尚未得到量化。本研究旨在量化口蹄疫爆发对南非平均牛肉屠宰价格的影响。

通过利用南非牛肉出口量作为口蹄疫的替代指标（鉴于口蹄疫疾病爆发会阻止牛肉出口，除非特定贸易伙伴间达成双边协议），普通最小二乘法（Ordinary Least Squares，简称OLS）回归分析表明，出口对南非平均牛肉屠宰价格具有统计学上的显著影响。然而，对结果进行的诊断测试显示，该模型存在缺陷，因此不适用于假设检验。

基于此，尽管研究支持量化口蹄疫爆发对南非牛肉产业的影响的必要性，但建议进行进一步研究，特别是考虑到爆发引起的结构性变化，因为撰写本研究时，国家的无口蹄疫区域状态尚未恢复。