Geopolitical Conflict, Sanctions, and Olympic Performance: Evidence from Paris 2024

We examine how armed conflict and participation restrictions are associated withOlympic performance. Using Summer Games data from 2000–2021, we estimate aTobit model of medal shares and construct counterfactual predictions for Paris 2024based on pre-war dynamics. Countries directly affected by the Russia–Ukraine warunderperformed relative to predicted outcomes, with an especially large deviationfor Russia. At the sport level, former Soviet republics exceeded predictions in medal-intensive disciplines, consistent with competitive reallocation. The findings suggestthat geopolitical shocks can shift not only participation but also the cross-countrydistribution of Olympic success.