Codes and data of Long transients may be temporary visits of hidden alternative stable states

Ecosystems may fluctuate around a stable equilibrium or be in a transient state (the period toward a stable state). In practical applications, a transient state may be mistakenly regarded as a stable state, or vice versa, especially when they involve multiple positive feedbacks, because multiple positive feedbacks can produce much more complicated system equilibrium behavior than those produced by only one positive feedback. However, our knowledge on this topic is still limited. With a long-term restoration project in the Tengger Desert as the study object, this study employed a minimal model to explain a long “transient state” of a dryland ecosystem after restoration under the effects of two positive feedbacks (water- and erosion-vegetation). We found that the “transient state”, a shrub-dominated state, might be one of the alternative stable states maintained by water-vegetation positive feedback. The shifting of dominance between the two positive feedbacks destroyed the shrub-dominated state and shifted the ecosystem into an herbaceous-dominated state. That is, the shrub-dominated state was masked due to the mechanisms of dominance shifting by the two positive feedbacks, a phenomenon we refer to as “hidden alternative stable state”. Overall, this work proposes a novel perspective to study system dynamics – a switch of multiple positive feedbacks, and discovers a new explanation to transient state – temporary visits of hidden alternative stable states, which could significantly benefit ecosystem interventions in practice.