Understanding and Predicting Global Climate Change Impacts on the Vegetation and Fauna of Mangrove Forested Wetlands in Florida

An overall strategy of this project is to conduct integrated research at a number of different locations to address key questions related to global climate change impacts on the coastal mangrove forests and adjacent marshes. The integrated elements of the project include hydrology, vegetation and fauna. This project established, runs and maintains the Mangrove Hydrology Monitoring Network, a series of 17 stations arrayed along upstream downstream gradients in major rivers on the southwest coast of the Park and in the C-111 basin. The sites are also used for sampling vegetation, and soil elevation changes. Additionally the project adds a key research element concerning mangrove fauna, that is not present in related projects dealing with the mangrove dominated coastal zone. The network provides data on water (ground and surface) stage and conductivity that are used by the TIME and other modeling groups. Water year reports have been prepared and data are available via the TIME website and Everglades NP "Data for Ever" database. Open File Reports are being generated which provide historical aerial photographs in digital format. The data generated by this project is being used in models (hydrological and ecological) for gauging restoration success. The data are also being used in the formulation of Performance Measures. For example, spatial data on the movement of the mangrove / marsh ecotone (derived from the digital historical aerial photographs) will be used to provide a pre-drainage baseline of the Everglades ecosystem and metrics of success in restoration.

This project is addressing several key hypothesis related to global change impacts on the flora and fauna of the mangrove forested ecosystems which occur at the downstream end of the greater Everglades: 1) Mangroves in a geomorphic setting with relatively more edge (open-water/mangrove interface) support greater fishery productivity as measured by density and biomass/area than near-by mangroves with relatively little edge; 2) fishery productivity along complex environmental gradients is a function of the frequency and duration of tidal flooding, and of the variability in a suite of physicochemical parameters; 3) fires along the mangrove-marsh ecotone promote invasion of mangroves into adjacent marshes; and, 4) shifts in the position of the mangrove-marsh ecotone are linked to the passage of major tropical storms and hurricanes.