Stimuli, Behavioral, Script and Figure data supporting the study entitled: Brain activity of professional investors signals future stock performance.

Abstract:From April 2019 to February 2020, we used fMRI to collect brain response data of professional investors, while they processed 45 complex real-world investment cases and had to predict long-term stock performance. We then assessed whether the information they processed (stock metric data), their predictions and their brain responses would relate to future performance on the stock market. We report data of 34 participants (two participants were excluded from the study due to excessive head movement during fMRI scanning). The results of our study reveal that professional investors fail to accurately predict long-term stock performance. However, while processing complex information pertaining to investment cases, brain activity in a region associated with reward anticipation was increased for stocks that would end up overperforming in the future market. Remarkably, this effect held after controlling for the stock information (stock metric data) presented in the investment cases. Our findings add to recent work in ‘neuroforecasting’, demonstrating that market behavior can be forecasted by brain activity of a small sample, here of professional investors. The findings of this study are presented in the paper "Brain activity of professional investors signals future stock performance" published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

摘要：自2019年4月至2020年2月，本研究采用功能性磁共振成像（fMRI）技术，收集了专业投资者在处理45个复杂真实世界投资案例并预测长期股票表现过程中的大脑响应数据。随后，我们评估了他们处理的信息（股票指标数据）、预测结果及其大脑反应是否与未来股市表现相关。研究纳入了34名参与者（由于在fMRI扫描过程中头部运动过大，两名参与者被排除在外）。研究结果表明，专业投资者未能准确预测长期股票表现。然而，在处理与投资案例相关的复杂信息时，与奖励预期相关的脑区活动在最终市场表现优于预期的股票中有所增加。值得注意的是，这一效应在控制了投资案例中呈现的股票信息（股票指标数据）后依然存在。我们的研究补充了‘神经预测’领域的最新成果，表明市场行为可以通过一小部分样本的大脑活动进行预测，在此例中为专业投资者的活动。本研究成果已发表在《美国国家科学院院刊》（PNAS）的论文《专业投资者的大脑活动预示未来股票表现》中。