Imagining an Undivided Subcontinent: A Counterfactual Analysis of the Gains and Losses from the Partition of British India

The 20th-century partition of British India was a watershed moment that radically reconfigured the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. This article conducts a counterfactual analysis to explore the potential outcomes of a hypothetical "undivided India," comprising modern-day India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. By synthesizing historical data, contemporary economic indicators, and social analyses, the study assesses the synergistic advantages a unified subcontinent might have possessed and, conversely, the enduring costs imposed by its fragmentation. The analysis posits that a unified state, with a combined 2024 population of approximately 1.93 billion and a GDP of $4.8 trillion, could have emerged as a premier global economic and political power. Key potential advantages include a seamlessly integrated single market, optimized infrastructure and resource management (particularly transboundary water resources), pooled human capital, and substantially greater international influence. In contrast, the actual partitions are shown to have inflicted deep and lasting wounds, including catastrophic human displacement and violence, chronic economic disruption, severed supply chains, and the creation of persistent geopolitical rivalries that divert crucial resources from development to defense. While acknowledging the immense complexities of governing such a diverse entity, this paper concludes that understanding the scale of these lost opportunities underscores the critical importance of fostering greater economic integration and peaceful cooperation among the subcontinent's successor states today.