Replication package for 'Administered farmgate prices and the cross-border leakage of cocoa: evidence from mirror trade statistics in West Africa'

This archive reproduces every table and figure in Onodje, P. and Adekoya, O., 'Administered farmgate prices and the cross-border leakage of cocoa: evidence from mirror trade statistics in West Africa'. The paper relates importer-reported (mirror) imports of cocoa beans (HS 1801) from Togo, Liberia and Guinea to the gap between the world cocoa price and the farmgate prices fixed by the marketing boards of Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire, 2012 to 2026. The package contains Python scripts for data download, estimation and figures; a hand-compiled record of 40 farmgate price announcements (2015/16 to 2026/27) with a source for each; openly licensed price, exchange rate and FAOSTAT production data; aggregated outlet-level trade series with SHA-256 checksums of the raw files; all outputs; and a dated, hashed prediction file that pre-specifies a held-out test for June to December 2026. UN Comtrade terms of use do not permit redistribution of the trade records, so the archive provides aggregated series that reproduce the headline estimates; the download script retrieves the underlying records with a free UN Comtrade subscription key. Code is released under the MIT licence; data compiled by the authors and outputs under CC BY 4.0. See README.md for instructions.