Evaluating Uganda’s Oil Sector: Estimation of Upstream Projects

About the ProjectNatural Resource-led Development in New Producing Countries Our project seeks to understand how natural resource extraction can drive inclusive economic growth in new producing countries. We are engaged in a multiyear, multidisciplinary study with four objectives: Understand the human geography of new producing countries. Assess the magnitude of new discoveries and estimate direct fiscal impact.Understand how industry can be localized to create economic growth. Estimate spillovers and welfare impacts to society.We recognize that policymaking in new producing countries is a complex process, and our project also seeks to understand the interactions of actors’ interests that drive energy sector policies. Our initial focus is on four countries – Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania and Uganda – that expect to develop significant oil and gas reserves in the next 5-7 years. Through natural resource development, these countries hope to achieve middle-income economic status by 2030-2040. This project is conducted through close collaboration with leading think tanks and NGOs in Africa.Key PointsUganda and other countries in Eastern Africa are on the cusp of developing many oil and gas resources, and there is reason for local content to be included in the discussion. As part of a larger research effort at KAPSARC – which includes determining the local capacity for goods and services, economic impacts and policy implications – estimating the actual costs for development are a key input. Drawing on government and public domain information, this paper makes a detailed assessment of the cost, schedule and production estimates resulting from investment in Ugandan upstream oil projects. Ugandan upstream oil and gas development is focused on three major projects on the shores of Lake Albert with Tullow Oil, Total and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) as partners. These projects are somewhat challenging due to their remoteness, complex geology and very waxy crude that is difficult to transport to market. Combined, these projects will cost approximately $18.46 billion, or $17.50/barrel: CAPEX                                   $8.640 billion OPEX                                     $9.088 billion Decommissioning               $0.731 billionThe opportunities for local participation are spread across many different sectors, broadly: Energy and Mining              $4.275 billion Services                                 $2.741 billion Manufacturing                     $2.676 billion Construction                        $2.513 billion Utilities                                  $2.201 billion Insurance                              $1.780 billion Transport and Storage        $0.463 billion

关于项目：新产出国自然资源驱动型发展研究本项目的目标是探究自然资源开采如何推动新产出国包容性经济增长。我们正在进行一项为期多年的跨学科研究，旨在实现以下四个目标：

探究新产出国的人文地理学。
评估新发现规模并估算直接财政影响。
研究如何实现产业本地化以促进经济增长。
估算对社会的溢出效应和福利影响。

我们认识到新产出国政策制定是一个复杂的过程，本项目亦旨在理解推动能源部门政策的利益相关者之间的互动。我们的初步研究聚焦于四个国家——肯尼亚、莫桑比克、坦桑尼亚和乌干达——这些国家预计在未来5至7年内将开发出大量的石油和天然气储备。通过自然资源开发，这些国家期望在2030至2040年间实现中等收入经济体的地位。本项目通过与非洲领先智库和非政府组织的紧密合作而实施。

关键点：乌干达及其他东非国家正处于开发大量石油和天然气资源的边缘，因此有必要将本地内容纳入讨论。作为KAPSARC（沙特阿拉伯能源研究论坛）更大规模研究工作的一部分——该研究包括确定货物和服务的地方能力、经济影响和政策含义——估算实际开发成本是一个关键输入。本论文基于政府和公共领域信息，对乌干达上游石油项目投资产生的成本、进度和生产估计进行了详细评估。乌干达上游石油和天然气开发主要集中在阿尔伯特湖沿岸的三个主要项目上，合作伙伴包括图洛石油公司、道达尔公司和中国的中国海洋石油总公司（CNOOC）。这些项目由于地理位置偏远、地质复杂以及非常粘稠的原油难以运输到市场而具有一定的挑战性。这三个项目合计成本约为184.6亿美元，或每桶17.5美元：

投资成本（CAPEX）$8.64亿
运营成本（OPEX）$9.09亿
废弃处置成本$0.73亿

本地参与的机遇分布在整个多个不同行业，大致如下：

能源和采矿行业$42.75亿
服务业$27.41亿
制造业$26.76亿
建筑业$25.13亿
公用事业$22.01亿
保险业$17.8亿
交通运输和储存$4.63亿