POTEnCIA Central-2018 scenario

The POTEnCIA Central-2018 scenario describes the projected evolution of the EU energy system until the year 2050 under the assumption that no further policies and measures are introduced beyond the end of 2017. The results show that both the energy and the carbon intensity of the European economy remain on a declining path in this scenario set-up, but will miss the mid-century GHG-neutrality target announced in 2018 by the EC. This evolution is driven by the continued impact of policies that are already in place in combination with technology progress, as well as by structural changes and the development of the prices of fossil fuels and of the CO2 allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. In 2030, energy and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets set by the 2030 EU framework for climate and energy are not reached, indicating the need for additional policies and measures.
The Central scenario was developed with the JRC´s energy model POTEnCIA and serves as reference point to which policy scenarios can be compared. It is the result of a transparent and iterative interactive exercise between the JRC, other Commission services and Member States' national experts.
The Central scenario report is accompanied by the release of the comprehensive model output with detailed information by sector and country on an annual basis between 2000 and 2050, as well as the underlying exogenous assumptions. The historical period 2000-2015 is based on and further complements the decomposition of statistical data as performed in the publicly available JRC-IDEES data-box.