Energy Supply and Demand Projections

bull The National Energy Board rsquo s Energy Futures series explores how possible energy futures mightunfold for Canadians over the long term This analysis is not a prediction of what will takeplace, nor does it aim to show how certain goals like Canada rsquo s climate targets will be achieved Rather, Energy Futures employs economic and energy models to make projections based on acertain set of assumptions given what we know today about technology, energy and climatepolicies, human behaviour and the structure of the economy bull This report, Canada rsquo s Energy Future 2017 Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 EF2017 ,is the latest edition of this series bull EF2017 considers three cases o The Reference Case is based on a current economic outlook, a moderate view of energyprices, and climate and energy policies announced at the time of analysis o The Higher Carbon Price HCP Case considers the impact on the Canadian energysystem of higher carbon pricing than in the Reference Case o The Technology Case considers the impact on the Canadian energy system of greateradoption of select emerging energy production and consumption technologies bull In developing this report the NEB engaged various energy experts and stakeholders to gatherinput and feedback on the assumptions and preliminary projections The NEB would like tothank all participants for their contributions to EF2017 bull Over the projection period, it is likely that developments beyond the realm of normalexpectations, such as geopolitical events or technological breakthroughs, will occur Likewise, nbsp new information will become available and trends, policies, and technologies willevolve In particular, EF 2017 makes several simplifying assumptions on future carbon pricingin Canada The actual implementation of the pan Canadian approach to carbon pricing couldlead to different impacts on Canada rsquo s energy system than shown here This report should notbe taken as an official or definitive impact analysis of this initiative Readers of this analysisshould consider the projections a baseline for discussing Canada rsquo s energy future today, not aprediction of what will take place in the future

国家能源委员会的《能源未来》系列报告探讨了加拿大长期可能的能源未来发展趋势。本分析并非对未来可能发生的事件的预测，亦非旨在展示如何实现诸如加拿大气候目标等既定目标。相反，《能源未来》系列报告通过运用经济和能源模型，基于当前关于技术、能源政策、人类行为以及经济结构的知识，在一系列既定假设的基础上进行预测。本报告《2017年加拿大能源未来：能源供需预测至2040年》（EF2017），是该系列的最新版本。EF2017考虑了三种情况：参考案例基于当前的经济展望、适度的能源价格观以及分析时的气候和能源政策；高碳价案例（HCP）考虑了比参考案例更高的碳价对加拿大能源系统的影响；技术案例考虑了更广泛采用特定新兴能源生产和消费技术对加拿大能源系统的影响。在编制本报告的过程中，国家能源委员会邀请了众多能源专家和利益相关者，就假设和初步预测提供意见和建议。国家能源委员会对所有参与者的贡献表示衷心的感谢。在预测期间，超出常规预期的发展，如地缘政治事件或技术突破，可能会发生。同样，新的信息将会出现，趋势、政策和技术也将不断演变。特别是，EF2017在加拿大的未来碳定价方面做出了若干简化的假设。加拿大泛省碳定价方法的实际实施可能对加拿大能源系统的影响与这里所展示的不同。本报告不应被视为该举措的官方或最终影响分析。本分析的读者应将预测视为讨论加拿大当前能源未来的基准，而非对未来发生事件的预测。