Trade risks to energy security in net-zero emissions energy scenarios

Secure access to energy services is a prerequisite to economic productivity and a chief strategic concern of national governments. Yet it is unclear how trade of fuels and critical materials in scenarios that achieve net-zero emissions relate to energy security risks. Here, we find that overall trade risks decrease in most countries (70%) in net-zero scenarios due to reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels, but trade risks to either electricity or transportation systems increase in a majority (82%) of countries that become more dependent on imported materials. Countries with abundant mineral reserves (e.g., Australia and China) become much less dependent on imports, but the opposite is true in countries with large fossil-fuel reserves (e.g., Russia, the Middle East). We further evaluate the sensitivity of countries’ trade risks to differences in trading networks, energy systems, material intensities of technologies, and recycling rates, highlighting opportunities for technological innovation and policy changes.