The role of protected areas and land tenure regimes on forest loss in Bolivia: accounting for spatial spillovers

The conversion of tropical forests to croplands and grasslands is a major threat to global biodiversity, climate and local livelihoods and ecosystems. The enforcement of protected areas as well as the clarification and strengthening of collective and individual land property rights are key instruments to curb deforestation in the tropics. However, these instruments are territorial and can displace forest loss elsewhere. We investigate the effects of protected areas and various land tenure regimes on deforestation and possible spillover effects in Bolivia, a global tropical deforestation hotspot. We use a spatial Durbin model to assess and compare the direct and indirect effects of protected areas and different land tenure types on forest loss in Bolivia from 2010 to 2017. We find that protected areas have a strong direct effect on reducing deforestation. Protected areas – which in Bolivia are all based on co-management schemes - also protect forests in adjacent areas, showing a protective spillover effect. Indigenous lands however only have weak direct forest protection effects. Non-indigenous collective lands and small private lands, which are associated to Andean settlers, and non-titled lands show a strong direct effect on deforestation. At the same time these lands also encourage deforestation in adjacent areas, indicating the existence of spillovers. Interestingly, areas with high poverty rate tend to be less impacted by deforestation whatever tenure type. Our findings suggest that long-lasting co-management instruments rather than land tenure types are key to conserve tropical forests.