Replication Dataset for Rule-Based Electricity Tariff Modeling

This dataset provides the complete replication materials for an empirical analysis of regulated electricity tariff dynamics in Turkiye. The replication package enables full reproducibility of the econometric estimations, diagnostic tests, tables, and figures produced in the associated study. The dataset consists of monthly time-series data spanning January 2011 to October 2025, harmonized to a common frequency and expressed in nominal Turkish lira. The core variables include regulated residential electricity tariffs (constructed as pre-tax monthly bills for a representative household with fixed consumption of 300 kWh), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), day-ahead wholesale electricity market clearing prices (MCP), and the USD/TRY exchange rate. Fixing consumption allows the analysis to focus on tariff formation and adjustment mechanisms rather than quantity effects. The archive includes: (1) cleaned and harmonized datasets in Stata and XLSX formats; (2) Stata do-files implementing unit-root testing, ARDL bounds testing, error-correction modeling, robustness checks, rolling regressions, and diagnostic analysis; (3) estimation output files reproducing all reported tables; and (4) scripts and exported figures corresponding to the graphical results. All estimations were conducted using Stata 17. Data sources are publicly available and include Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST/EPIAS), the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), and official electricity tariff schedules published by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA). The dataset is intended for academic replication, methodological validation, and policy-oriented analysis of electricity tariff regulation.