Data from: Patchy distribution and low effective population size raise concern for an at-risk top predator

Aim: Understanding carnivore distribution is important for management
decisions that aim to restore naturally-regulated ecosystems and preserve
biodiversity. Eastern Wolves, a species at risk in Canada, are centralized
in Algonquin Provincial Park and their ability to disperse and establish
themselves elsewhere is limited by human-caused mortality associated with
hunting, trapping, and vehicle collisions. Here, we refine our
understanding of Eastern Wolf distribution and provide the first estimates
of their effective population size. Location: Southern Ontario and
Gatineau Quebec. Methods: We used noninvasive samples, as well as blood
samples archived from other research projects, collected between 2010 –
2014 to generate autosomal microsatellite genotypes at 12 loci for 98
Canis individuals. We utilized Bayesian and multivariate clustering
analyses to identify Eastern Wolves in regions that were previously
unsampled. Both linkage disequilibrium and temporal approaches were used
to estimate effective population size of Eastern Wolves. Results:
Assignment tests identified 34 individuals as Eastern Wolves, primarily in
or near two provincial parks: Killarney and Queen Elizabeth II Wildlands.
Eastern Coyotes were identified in Bon Echo Provincial Park, Frontenac
Provincial Park, and Gatineau Park, whereas many of the samples were
admixed among the different Canis types. Effective population size (Ne)
estimates ranged from 24.3 – 122.1 with a harmonic mean of 45.6. Main
Conclusions: The identification of Eastern Wolves in the regions of
Killarney and Queen Elizabeth II Wildlands Provincial Parks extends the
range of Eastern Wolves north of the French River and southward into
previously unidentified regions. The effective population size is low and
raises concerns for long-term persistence of this threatened carnivore;
values are dangerously close to critical values recommended for short-term
persistence. These results provide important information for upcoming
Eastern Wolf recovery plans associated with federal and provincial
endangered species legislation.