Changes in Household Consumption Welfare in Vietnam from 2010 to 2020: Simulated Food Price Shocks

This paper examines changes in household food-consumption welfare in Vietnam from 2010 to 2020 using an Exact Affine Stone Index demand system and equivalent-income welfare measurement. Using VHLSS data, it estimates demand for ten food groups and simulates welfare effects under alternative food-price shocks. The results show a marked shift in food-budget composition, with rice declining and meat, seafood, sugar–confectionery–milk, and food away from home gaining importance. The equivalent-income comparison indicates that households would require about 75% more food expenditure at 2020 prices to attain the 2010 reference utility level. Simulated 20% shocks reveal strong asymmetry: a staple- and producer-linked shock involving rice, vegetables, and seafood generates losses of about 6–7%, whereas a selected non-staple shock involving meat, eggs, sugar–confectionery–milk, beverages, and food away from home generates larger losses of about 16–19%.