Keeping track of global trade in real time
收藏Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development2026-04-11 收录
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This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic factor model to monitor and perform short-term forecasts in real time of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services. The selection of trade indicator series is made using a multidimensional approach, including Bayesian model...
