Descriptive statistics.

How can states with a history of recent armed conflict trust one another? Political psychology offers two competing approaches to increase trust between the publics of different countries: appealing to an overarching, common identity above the national level vs. affirming a sense of national identity. This study aims to examine the scope conditions of group-affirmation effects on trust in active conflicts by testing which group-affirmation approach increases trust towards Russia among the Ukrainian public. Distrust between Ukraine and Russia aggravates security fears and limits hope for a meaningful resolution of the bloodiest armed conflict in Europe since 1994. Hostility levels have risen dramatically between the populations of Ukraine and Russia after the events of 2013–2015. The study employs a survey experiment (between-subjects design) to evaluate these competing approaches. The survey was fielded in late May-June 2020 by a reputable public opinion research firm, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), based in Ukraine. The results suggest that in areas where conflict is salient, national identity affirmation can increase trust in subsamples that hold preexisting baseline levels of affinity toward the outgroup. When combined with the more anti-Russian Ukrainians however, this positive effect was cancelled out. In contrast, emphasis on an overarching, common ingroup identity did not raise trust in any subgroups. Examining the disparate effects of national identity affirmation in anti-Russian and pro-Russian regional subsamples helps specify the scope conditions of which group-affirmation can be most effective.

如何使曾经历近期武装冲突的各国之间相互信任？政治心理学提出了两种相互竞争的方法以增强不同国家公众之间的信任：一方面是诉诸于超越国家层面的普遍身份认同，另一方面则是确认民族身份感。本研究旨在探讨群体确认效应在活跃冲突中对信任影响的范围条件，通过测试哪种群体确认方法能够增加乌克兰公众对俄罗斯的信任。乌克兰与俄罗斯之间的不信任加剧了安全担忧，并限制了对于1994年以来欧洲最血腥的武装冲突得到实质性解决的希望。自2013-2015年的事件以来，乌克兰和俄罗斯民众之间的敌意水平急剧上升。本研究采用问卷调查实验（被试间设计）来评估这些竞争性的方法。该调查由一家信誉良好的民意调查机构——乌克兰基辅国际社会学研究所（KIIS）在2020年5月底至6月初进行。结果显示，在冲突显著的地区，民族身份的确认能够增加对具有先前既定亲和力的外群体子样本的信任。然而，当与更反俄罗斯的乌克兰人结合时，这种积极效果被抵消。相反，强调普遍的、共同的群体身份认同并未在任何子群体中提升信任。研究反俄罗斯和亲俄罗斯地区子样本中民族身份确认的不同影响，有助于明确何种群体确认能在何种条件下最为有效。