Under-five death rate in Yida refugee camp, June/July 2012.

* The Bayesian estimate is based on a conjugate beta-binomial model. The “skeptical” prior has a mean of 1.07 (sub-Saharan mortality baseline reference), and the 0.95 percentile is 2.1 (this means we assume the skeptical audience believes there is a 5% chance that mortality levels exceed the emergency threshold).** The Bayesian “confidence interval” is the highest density interval (HDI) of the posterior distribution.Under-five death rate in Yida refugee camp, June/July 2012.