Plebiscite of Peace: voter turnout of the Colombian migrants in Guayaquil (Ecuador)

Abstract This article aims to contextualize the Peace Plebiscite of 2016. It improves the understanding of external voting on mechanisms of direct democracy. With observational data, several statistical exercises are carried out. On a descriptive level, the reasons for (not) voting in the Plebiscite of Peace are grouped into positive and negative perceptions. In the inferential analysis, we report that positive perceptions are significantly associated with emigrant voter turnout. This type of turnout positively correlates with the experience in previous elections (in Colombia), the follow-up to the Peace Agreement and the concern for the 2018 elections. In addition, empirical evidence highlights that young people are the ones most likely to participate in elections from abroad, with high historical relevance as the elections of October 2016.