EARS lake activity is predicted by regional paleoclimate records.

Full model results are presented in the supplementary information. Best fit model was identified using the stepAIC function in R package Mass [38]. APL, a measure of climate pulses or turnover, represents average path length for each 50 kyrs period as derived by Donges et al. [2], AIC change represents the impact on model fit by dropping each predictor (positive change indicates that dropping a factor worsens model fit). Variables listed in decreasing order of influence on model fit. The first model covers the period from 0–3 Ma and the second from 350 Ka −2.6 Ma, due to the reduced coverage of the APL records.