Domestic Politics and United States Foreign Policy: A Study of Cold War Conflict Behavior

This study reexamines an empirical claim that is broadly accepted in international relations: during the Cold War, United States foreign policy belligerence was influenced strongly by domestic factors. The authors develop a rational expectations theory that produces hypotheses that are at odds with that result. They test these hypotheses and report findings that are both consistent with their rational expectations theory and inconsistent with the domestic effects hypothesis. They conclude that international politics, rather than domestic politics, was the primary determinant of United States foreign policy behavior during the Cold War.