Data from: Limited refugia and high velocity range-shifts predicted for bat communities in drought-risk areas of the Northern Hemisphere

Species occupying semi-arid and dry regions around the globe face an
uncertain future due to increases in the frequency and severity of
droughts. In this study we modelled the potential effect of climate change
on bat communities within two high-drought risk regions of the world and
assessed the magnitude and direction of the predicted shifts in climatic
suitability, locating climate change refugia and identifying species at
greatest risk of population declines. To do this, we compared climate
suitability models for 43 species using three global climate models and
three emissions scenarios for current (1950-2000) and future (2061-2080)
climates within two regions where droughts are predicted to increase, the
Western Palaearctic and Western North America. Our models predicted an
overall reduction in bat richness with future climates. Areas projected to
support high species richness in the current climate coincided with
greatest predicted species loss and greatest future drought risk. For
species with the potential to extend their range, high velocity range
shifts would be required to keep pace with these changes, particularly in
the Western Palaearctic, where additional barriers to movement include
seas and high human population density areas. Predicted refugial zones
were limited and occurred in similar areas across continents (montane and
high latitude with some coastal areas). The area of climate suitability
was predicted to contract for around half of study species, with nine
identified as species of conservation concern due to low overlap between
current and future modelled ranges. The best-case scenario for bat
diversity in semi-arid and dry regions in the future is likely to be
reduced species richness, with many species facing rapid range expansion
over challenging landscapes to access climatically suitable areas.
Conservation of bats in high drought risk regions will likely depend on
protection of identified refugia and networks of water sources, as well as
global measures to protect biodiversity and human wellbeing, such as
reduction in global carbon emissions.