Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities | FRED

**Overview**

Smoothed recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

**Product Details**

Includes the following tables:

- **fs_fred.fred_recprousm156n**
- **Update frequency:** monthly
- **Source:** FRED
- **Description:** The included dataset contains the following columns:`DATE`, `RECPROUSM156N`. The `RECPROUSM156N` column represents the smoothed probability of a recession in the U.S. at the time of the corresponding `DATE`.

**Data Sources**

The data in this product comes from **FRED**.

- **Source Homepage:** [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/)
- **Frequency:**

The data in this product comes from **FRED**.

Short for Federal Reserve Economic Data, FRED is an online database consisting of hundreds of thousands of economic data time series from scores of national, international, public, and private sources.
FRED, created and maintained by the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, goes far beyond simply providing data:
It combines data with a powerful mix of tools that help the user understand, interact with, display, and disseminate the data.
In essence, FRED helps users tell their data stories.

This product uses data from the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

- **Source Homepage:** [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/)
- **Source Data:** [Data link](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=RECPROUSM156N)
- **License:** [License](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#full-fred-terms)
- **Frequency:** monthly