Impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of the traditional chinese medicinal plant Spatholobus suberectus in China: an analysis using a selected ensemble model

Spatholobus suberectus, a valuable Chinese medicinal plant, faces habitat shifts under climate change. In order to better utilize the medicinal properties of S. suberectus and conduct further investigations, this study utilized the Biomod2 ensemble model to predict and analyze the potential expansion and contraction of suitable habitat areas for S. suberectus in China under changing climatic and environmental conditions. The results showed that, compared to the pre-screened models, the ensemble model significantly improved the prediction accuracy. Currently, S. suberectus is concentrated in southern China, its suitable habitat is projected to contract overall, peaking at 143.91 × 10³ km² by the 2070s, with losses focused in southern regions. The five most influential environmental factors were found to be: the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio06), the annual mean temperature (bio01), seasonal variation in temperature (bio04), and the precipitation of the driest season (bio17). As various climatic factors change, the centroid of high suitability for S. suberectus is predicted to shift first towards the northeast and then towards the northwest. Future utilization strategies must prioritize climate change monitoring and habitat conservation to mitigate ecological impacts and ensure sustainable use.