Modeling phylogenetic biome shifts on a planet with a past

The spatial distribution of biomes has changed considerably over deep time, so the geographical opportunity for an evolutionary lineage to shift into a new biome may depend on how the availability and connectivity of biomes has varied temporally. To better understand how lineages shift between biomes in space and time, we developed a phylogenetic biome shift model in which each lineage shifts between biomes and disperses between regions at rates that depend on the lineage’s biome affinity and location relative to the spatiotemporal distribution of biomes at any given time. To study the behavior of the biome shift model in an empirical setting, we developed a literature-based representation of paleobiome structure for three mesic forest biomes, six regions, and eight time strata, ranging from the Late Cretaceous (100 Ma) through the present. We then fitted the model to a time-calibrated phylogeny of 119 Viburnum species to compare how the results responded to various realistic or unreali...