Scenario emissions and temperature data for PROVIDE project

Data for tier 1 and tier 2 PROVIDE scenarios. 

Tier 1 scenarios are mostly from integrated assessment models. Tier 2 scenarios are much more numerous and are kept in a separately zipped folder for temperatures and csv file for emissions data. The temperature folders contains the full set of FaIR runs for scenarios entirely defined by emissions. Summaries are much smaller files containing quantile info for each scenario, including the scenarios defined by combinations of emissions and temperature trends. 

10 Tier 1 scenarios until 2100

15 Tier 1 scenarios defined until 2300, all of which are variations of the original 10

Many Tier 2 scenarios, aiming to completely tile reasonable emissions space parameterised with 4 variables

Several objectives of the PROVIDE project depend on a set of scenarios that can be modelled through either a ‘classical’ forward-looking approach or by a novel approach that ‘reverses the impact chain’. These scenarios are also key elements for the integration of PROVIDE findings in the outward-looking stakeholder Dashboard of the project. Here we describe the set of scenarios that has been developed and will be used within PROVIDE. In total, PROVIDE explores three complementary approaches:

10 distinct tier 1 scenarios extending until 2100, mostly based on the existing literature, used for short-term assessments of impacts

15 distinct tier 1 scenarios extending until 2300, based on different extensions of the 10 literature scenarios, used for assessing longer-run impacts and the geophysical impact of significant temperature overshoot

~1350 distinct tier 2 scenarios, exploring several dimensions of emissions space systematically, such as CO2 net zero date and relative methane intensity. This is used to explore which scenarios are compatible with given climate outcomes. These scenarios can be used to reverse the traditional impact chain, going from acceptable climate risks to descriptions of acceptable emissions.