Large-scale oceanographic fluctuations drive Antarctic petrel survival and reproduction

Polar Regions are experiencing environmental changes at unprecedented rates. These changes can spread throughout entire food webs from lower trophic levels to apex predators. As many top predators forage over large areas, these indirect effects may be associated with large-scale patterns of climate variability. Using global climate indices that are known to impact the Southern Ocean ecosystem (the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation Indices) we assessed their efficacy to predict variation in the demographic parameters of Antarctic seabirds. First, we used a long-term dataset on adult survival (estimated from capture-mark-recapture data) and reproduction of Antarctic petrel Thalassoica antarctica, from the largest known breeding colony (Svarthamaren, Dronning Maud Land) and examined whether large-scale oceanographic fluctuations impact survival and reproduction. Second, we conducted an exhaustive literature review to determine whether the effects of large-scale environ...