Replication package for "When does development credit count as adaptation finance? Drought losses and climate-relevant credit in Brazil's semi-arid region"

This replication package contains the data, documentation and code required to reproduce the empirical results, tables and figures reported in the manuscript “When does development credit count as adaptation finance? Drought losses and climate-relevant credit in Brazil’s semi-arid region”. The paper evaluates when domestic public development credit can be interpreted as adaptation finance rather than ordinary development finance. It uses Brazil’s Northeast Constitutional Financing Fund (FNE), municipal credit records, rainfall shocks, agricultural outcomes and a policy-based credit taxonomy to test whether climate-relevant credit attenuates agricultural downside risk under drought. The package includes a municipality-year analytical dataset, municipal boundary files, a professional data dictionary, source notes, variable-construction documentation and a single replication script. Running the replication script reproduces the paper’s policy taxonomy tables, climate-targeting diagnostics, damage-function estimates, timing falsifications, appendix robustness tables and figures. The central empirical design estimates whether accumulated exposure to direct climate-relevant credit reduces the probability of severe agricultural collapse when unexpected drought shocks occur. The package also reproduces comparisons with non-climate credit and PRONAF/rural credit, as well as drought-innovation diagnostics and future-timing falsification tests. Files included data/fne_climate_credit_master.csv: final municipality-year analytical dataset documentation/data_dictionary.csv: complete variable dictionary documentation/KEY_VARIABLES.md: short guide to the main variables documentation/source_notes.md: data-source documentation documentation/variable_construction.md: variable-construction notes documentation/AUDIT_REPORT.md: final package audit code/00_replicate_all.py: single replication script outputs_generated/: tables and figures generated by the replication script