Arctic accessibility: recent trend in observed ship tracks and validation of arctic transport accessibility model

The Arctic region is undergoing significant changes in maritime accessibility. This study investigates observed ship trajectories from 2013 to 2020 to demonstrate the recent trends of Arctic traffic. A notable surge in maritime activities has been observed, particularly during summer months, driven by economic interests and the increasing popularity of existing routes. Unique patterns in the northern Barents Sea have been observed where ships favour different routes based on seasonal ice conditions. Another contribution from this work is the validation of the Arctic Traffic Accessibility Model (ATAM) using the observed ship traffic data. Results show that the ATAM model underestimates the accessibility and vessel travel speed. This is largely due to outdated model parameters. The predefined ice multipliers and calculation of ice numerals used in the ATAM may not accurately reflect real-world conditions.