Data for: Promises, policies and pocketbook voting

Abstract of associated article: Do voters respond to political parties׳ promises or to their past actions? We use a suitable sequence of events in Swedish politics to provide the first answer to this question. In the 1994 election campaign the Social Democrats proposed major cuts in transfers to parents with young children, whereas in the 1998 campaign they promised to increase transfers. The Social Democrats won both elections and delivered on both promises. Using voting among parents with slightly older children as counterfactual, we find that voters with young children responded markedly to economic promises rather than to implemented policies.

相关文章摘要：选民是对政治党的承诺做出反应，还是对其过往行为作出反应？本研究通过瑞典政治中一系列适宜的事件，为这一问题提供了首个答案。在1994年的选举活动中，社会民主党提议大幅削减对抚养幼童家庭的转移支付，而1998年的选举活动中，他们承诺增加转移支付。社会民主党在两次选举中均获胜，并履行了各自的承诺。以抚养年龄稍大的儿童的投票作为反事实，我们发现，拥有幼童的选民对经济承诺的反应显著，而非对已实施政策的反应。